Trump’s Tariffs & Modi’s China Gamble, 10 Points

Delhi / Beijing

🔥 Trump’s Tariffs, Modi’s China Gamble: Is the US Losing India to Xi?

Key Takeaways on Modi’s Rare China Visit & Its Global Impact

1. Historic India-China Meeting After Deadly Clashes

   • Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to visit China for the first time since 2018, marking a thaw in ties after the 2020 Galwan Valley clashes that killed soldiers on both sides.

   • Despite deep mistrust, both nations are now prioritizing economic stability over rivalry.

2. Trump’s Tariffs Fueling Strategic Realignment

   • Former US President Donald Trump imposed 50% tariffs on Indian imports, including penalties over India’s purchase of Russian oil.

   • Analysts argue these economic shocks accelerated India’s pivot toward Beijing, even if not the primary driver.

3. SCO Summit: A Power-Shift Platform

   • Modi will attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit hosted by Xi Jinping.

   • Leaders from Russia, Pakistan, Iran, and Central Asia will join, showcasing a bloc aiming to reshape global power dynamics.

4. US Losing Strategic Ground?

   • Washington has long cultivated India as a counterweight to China in the Indo-Pacific through defense pacts and joint drills.

   • If India tilts closer to China, analysts warn it could be the “worst outcome” for US strategy.

5. From Brotherhood to Bitter Rivals

   • 1950s: India and China shared Asian solidarity.

   • 1962 War: Relations collapsed after the Sino-Indian war.

   • 2020 Galwan clashes: Deepened mistrust, but leaders are now seeking border stability agreements to avoid escalation.

6. Economic Reality Driving Diplomacy

   • China is India’s second-largest trading partner with $118 billion trade in 2023.

   • India depends on Chinese raw materials and intermediate goods critical for manufacturing and tech industries.

7. Balancing Between Blocs

   • India participates in the Quad (US, Japan, Australia, India) while also engaging with the China-dominated SCO.

   • This reflects New Delhi’s “strategic autonomy” policy—prioritizing national interests over rigid alliances.

8. Recent Signs of Normalization

   • India and China restarted direct flights suspended since the pandemic.

   • Beijing reopened pilgrimage sites in Tibet to Indian visitors after five years.

   • Both sides resumed issuing tourist visas, signaling cautious trust-building.

9. The Military Shadow Persists

   • Despite diplomacy, tens of thousands of troops remain stationed at the Himalayan border.

   • Last week, both sides agreed to 10 points of consensus, including “peace and tranquility,” though skepticism remains.

10. Future Outlook: Competition Without Conflict

    • Experts believe India-China ties may evolve into a “stable but competitive relationship”.

    • Conflict may remain at bay, but trust deficit and border disputes will continue to define the partnership.