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Indian Students in Canada Drop 67.5% in 2025, $10.5B Economic Hit, 7 Points
$22B Contribution Shrinks: Indian Students in Canada Down Two-Thirds
1. Growth Phase (2015–2023)
- Indian students in Canada rose 770.7% from 31,920 (2015) to 278,005 (2023).
- Yearly surge highlights:
- 2016: 52,620 (+64.8%)
- 2017: 82,935 (+57.6%)
- 2018: 107,020 (+29%)
- 2019: 138,595 (+29.5%)
- 2021: 169,300 (+109.3%) post-COVID rebound
- 2022: 225,670 (+33.3%)
- 2023: Peak at 278,005
- Economic impact (2023 peak):
- CAD 22 billion/year contributed to Canadian economy.
- Ontario & British Columbia received majority inflows.
- Strengthened workforce via Post-Graduation Work Permit (PGWP).
2. Reversal Phase (2024–2025)
2024: Start of Decline
- Indian study permit holders fell to 188,255 (-32.3% YoY).
- End of uninterrupted 8-year expansion.
2025: Steep Contraction
- Jan–Jul 2025 permits: 52,765.
- Full-year projection: 90,454.
- Decline analysis:
- 52% drop YoY (vs. 2024).
- 67.5% drop vs. 2023 peak.
- Comparable to 2017 levels.
- Economic shortfalls:
- CAD 10.5B less vs. 2023.
- CAD 4.5B less vs. 2024.
- Institutions (20–30% revenue from int’l tuition) under pressure.
- Local GDPs in student-heavy regions may shrink 1–2%.
3. Provincial & Sectoral Impact
- Ontario: Hosts 60% of Indian students → facing acute enrollment gaps.
- Emergency measures: scholarships, virtual program pivots.
- Labour market impact:
- PGWP pipeline could shrink 50%+.
- Gaps in tech and healthcare sectors.
4. Comparative Global Trends (2025)
- Canada still a top-5 destination (with US, Australia, UK, Germany).
- Average annual tuition & living costs:
- Canada: CAD 20k–40k + living CAD 10k–20k.
- US: USD 25k–50k + living USD 10k–20k.
- Australia: AUD 20k–45k.
- UK: GBP 10k–30k.
- Germany: Mostly free tuition.
5. Top 10 Source Countries for Canada (2025 Projection)
| Rank | Country | 2025 (Proj.) | 2024 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | India | 90,362 | 188,255 | -52% YoY, -67.5% from 2023 peak |
| 2 | China | 56,260 | 56,260 | Stable, -33.7% from 2018 peak |
| 3 | Nigeria | 29,117 | 26,470 | +319% since 2015 |
| 4 | Philippines | 25,930 | 24,695 | +1,214% since 2015 |
| 5 | Vietnam | 11,356 | 10,515 | Stable ~10k–12k |
| 6 | Iran | 10,915 | 10,915 | +366% since 2015 |
| 7 | Algeria | 10,349 | 9,240 | +862% since 2015 |
| 8 | South Korea | 8,037 | 8,460 | -50% since 2019 |
| 9 | Mexico | 8,590 | 8,340 | +97% since 2015 |
| 10 | France | 13,436 | 13,710 | Flat, below 2021 peak |
6. Key Challenges for International Students (2025)
- Financial strain: Tuition & living costs averaging USD 30k–60k yearly.
- Visa restrictions: Canada capped permits at 437,000.
- Housing shortages: 30% students face accommodation difficulties.
- Cultural & language barriers.
7. Strategic Outlook
- Canada must diversify student sources (Nigeria, Philippines, Algeria).
- Policies needed to offset $10.5B loss from Indian contraction.
- Universities exploring hybrid learning & micro-credentials.
- Potential to rebuild Indian partnership if immigration & cost concerns addressed.
Disclaimer
This article has been prepared for informational purposes only. The Profit India does not provide investment, legal, or immigration advice. Readers should conduct their own research or consult experts before making decisions based on the information provided.
