India’s Agni-P vs Global Missiles: ₹2661 Cr R&D, ₹53 Cr Per Unit, 8 Points

Delhi

Rail-Mobile Agni-P Procurement Math: 10 Missiles at ₹3193 Cr, 100 at ₹9757 Cr, 200 Missiles Could Cost ₹1.68 Lakh Cr

Assumed Conversion Rate

• 1 USD = ₹ 88.70 (current market rate)

1. What is Agni-P & Key Specs

   • Nuclear-capable ballistic missile, intermediate range (~2,000 km)

   • Payload ~1.5 tonnes

   • Canisterised design; latest test launched from a rail-based mobile launcher

2. Financials of Agni-P

   Item	Value in USD	Value in INR (₹)
   Program/Development Cost	US$300 million	₹ 26,610 million (≈₹ 2,661 crore)
   Cost per Missile (Unit)	US$6 million	₹ 532 million (≈₹ 53.2 crore)

3. Benefits & Costs of Rail-Based Launcher

   • Improves mobility, reduces vulnerability, enhances reaction time

   • Adds cost: R&D, launcher wagons, maintenance, rail compatibility

   • But incremental cost is small relative to total defence budgets

4. Other Countries’ Use of Rail-Mobile Missile Systems

   • Russia (BZhRK), USA (historical rail programs), China (DF-41 reported rail-option), North Korea

   • Spending publicly disclosed is rare; large projects often cost multiple billions in USD

5. Side-by-Side Comparison: Missiles Worldwide

   Country	Missile	Range (km)	Payload / MIRV	Launch Platforms	Dev Cost* (USD)	Unit Cost* (USD)
   India	Agni-P	~2,000	~1.5 t	Canisterised, rail-mobile	~US$300M	~US$6M
   China	DF-41	~12,000–15,000	Multiple MIRVs	Silo, road, rail-mobile reported	Several billions	Very high / not public
   Russia	RS-24 Yars	~10,000–11,000	MIRV	Silo, road-mobile TEL	State funded multi-billion	Not public
   Pakistan	Shaheen-III	~2,750	Single warhead	Road-mobile / pad	Not public	Not public
   Russia (historical)	RT-23 (Molodets)	~10,000	Multiple MIRVs	Rail-mobile & silo	Cold War program; large spend	Historical, decommissioned

   * Estimations; public data incomplete for many systems.

6. Procurement Scenarios — Converted to INR

   Using the assumed exchange rate (US$1 = ₹ 88.70). Including optional launcher costs (one launcher per 10 missiles; launcher cost assumed between US$5M–US$20M each).

   Scenario (Agni-P orders)	Quantity	Cost of Missiles (USD) → INR	Development Cost → INR	Total without launchers → INR	# of Launchers	Launcher Cost (low/high) USD → INR	Total with launchers (low → high) → INR
   A	10 missiles	US$60M → ₹ 5,322 million (≈₹ 532.2 crore)	US$300M → ₹ 26,610 million (≈₹ 2,661 crore)	₹ 31,932 million (≈₹ 3,193 crore)	1 launcher	US$5M → ₹ 443.5 million → Launcher high US$20M → ₹ 1,774 million	₹ 32,375 million → ₹ 33,706 million (≈₹ 3,238-3,371 crore)
   B	50 missiles	US$300M → ₹ 26,610 million	Same dev cost ₹ 26,610 million	₹ 53,220 million (≈₹ 5,322 crore)	5 launchers	Low ₹ 2,217.5 million → High ₹ 8,870 million	₹ 55,437.5 million → ₹ 62,090 million (≈₹ 5,543-6,209 crore)
   C	100 missiles	US$600M → ₹ 53,220 million	₹ 26,610 million	₹ 79,830 million (≈₹ 7,983 crore)	10 launchers	Low ₹ 4,435 million → High ₹ 17,740 million	₹ 84,265 million → ₹ 97,570 million (≈₹ 8,427-9,757 crore)
   D	200 missiles	US$1,200M → ₹ 106,440 million	₹ 26,610 million	₹ 133,050 million (≈₹ 13,305 crore)	20 launchers	Low ₹ 8,870 million → High ₹ 35,480 million	₹ 141,920 million → ₹ 168,530 million (≈₹ 14,192-16,853 crore)

   *“Million” here = million INR; “crore” = ₹10 million. For example ₹ 53,220 million = ₹ 5,322 crore.

7. Global Defence Spending Context

   Country	Approx Defence Budget (USD)	INR Equivalent (approx)
   India	US$86.1B	~ ₹ 7,637,000 million (≈ ₹ 7.64 lakh crore)
   USA	US$997B	~ ₹ 88,500,000 million (≈ ₹ 88.5 lakh crore)
   China	US$314B	~ ₹ 27,830,000 million (≈ ₹ 27.83 lakh crore)

   • Agni-P procurement even for 100 missiles (₹ ~8,427-9,757 crore) remains a small fraction of India’s annual defence budget (~₹ 7.6 lakh crore).

8. Key Takeaways

   1. Agni-P is relatively cost-efficient: low unit cost, moderate dev cost.

   2. Ordering in bulk reduces per-missile share of development cost.

   3. Launcher/rail integration adds costs but not massive ones compared to missile + dev.

   4. Defence budgets of major powers are so large that even ambitious programmes within India are financially manageable.

📌 Disclaimer (The Profit India)

All cost figures are estimates based on publicly available information as of September 2025. Actual costs may vary due to contract details, inflation, currency fluctuations, classified components, and program-specific overheads. This is for informational purposes only, not procurement or investment advice.