₹25 Lakh Crore Opportunity: Jefferies’ 25 Bottom-Up Stock Picks for 2025, 25 Points
Mumbai
Banking, Energy, Defence & FMCG: Jefferies’ 25 Stock Picks With 15–27% CAGR Over FY25–28
🔑 Key Market Context
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Macro Drivers – Tax reforms, stable India–US trade outlook, and healthy earnings revival expectations.
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Valuation Shift – Large-cap valuations now rational; bottom-up stock-picking favoured.
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Jefferies’ Focus – Identifies 25 long-term investment ideas across BFSI, energy, infra, pharma, FMCG, autos, IT & real estate.
🏦 Banking & Financials
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HDFC Bank
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NIM compression: ~30 bps in FY26, recovery post-FY27.
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Valuation: 19x FY26 PE, 2.3x PB.
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Target Price (TP): ₹1,200 → Upside ~12–15%.
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Catalyst: Loan growth, cross-sell, stable asset quality.
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ICICI Bank
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NIM compression: ~25 bps FY26, recovery post.
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Valuation: 17x PE, 2.6x PB (FY26).
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TP: ₹1,760 → Upside ~20%.
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Strength: Lowest LDR among private peers → stronger credit growth.
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Bajaj Finance
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AUM growth: 23–24% CAGR.
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ROE: ~20%; EPS growth 20%+.
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Valuation: 5.3x PB FY26.
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TP: ₹1,100.
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Driver: Tax cuts boost consumption financing.
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Cholamandalam Investment & Finance
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EPS CAGR: 25% FY25-28E; ROE ~20%.
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Margins expand as liabilities are 20–25% EBLR-linked.
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Valuation: Attractive entry post short-term softness.
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Max Financial Services
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APE CAGR: 15%, VNB CAGR: 17% FY25-28.
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Valuation: 2.3x P/EV, 15x P/VNB FY26E.
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TP: ₹1,900 (10–30% discount to HDFC Life).
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⚡ Energy, Infra & Industrials
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Reliance Industries
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EBITDA CAGR: 11% FY25-28.
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EV/EBITDA multiple inversion seen 4x in 5 yrs.
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TP: ₹1,670 → Upside ~21%.
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Catalysts: FMCG, data centre, New Energy verticals.
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Siemens Energy India
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EPS CAGR: 50% (FY24-27).
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Valuation: 60x PE FY27E.
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TP: ₹4,000.
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Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL)
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Order Book: ₹1.89 lakh cr (6.1x FY25 rev).
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EPS growth visibility: 3–5 yrs, 8–10% CAGR.
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TP: ₹6,220 at 35x PE FY27E.
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JSW Energy
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Capacity target: 30 GW by 2030 (vs 20 GW FY24).
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EPS CAGR: 23% FY25-28.
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TP: ₹700, 14x EV/EBITDA.
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Adani Ports
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Capacity addition: 17% FY25-27.
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EBITDA CAGR: 19% FY25-30.
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Valuation: 14x EV/EBITDA, attractive vs history.
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TP: ₹1,815.
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UltraTech Cement
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Valuation: 20x EV/EBITDA Sep-27E.
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TP: ₹14,700.
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Driver: Higher ROE/ROCE, market share gains.
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Jindal Stainless
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Market share: ~40% (India).
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EBITDA CAGR: 15% FY25-28; EPS CAGR 20%.
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Balance sheet: Net cash by FY28.
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TP: ₹900 at 12x EV/EBITDA.
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🚗 Autos & Consumer
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Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M)
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Volume growth: 12% CAGR.
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EPS CAGR: 19% FY25-28.
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Valuation: 27x PE FY26E (above 10Y avg of 14x).
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TVS Motors
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EPS CAGR: 27% FY25-28.
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Valuation: 47x PE FY26E (10Y avg: 32x).
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TP: Premium multiples sustained on strong growth.
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Jubilant Foodworks
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Double-digit SSS growth (ahead of peers).
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Valuation: 48x EV/EBITDA Sep-27E.
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TP: ₹1,000.
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AWL Agri Business
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Sales: ₹25,000 cr+ FMCG brand (Fortune).
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EPS to double in 5 years.
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Ownership shift to Wilmar to drive re-rating.
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💊 Pharma & Healthcare
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Sun Pharma
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EPS growth: High-teens CAGR FY26-28E.
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Valuation: 33x PE FY27E.
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TP: ₹2,070.
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Mankind Pharma
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Chronic segment: 40% sales (up 350bps in 3 yrs).
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Valuation: 28x EV/EBITDA FY27E.
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TP: ₹3,100.
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🏗️ Real Estate & Airports
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Lodha Developers (Macrotech)
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Largest listed developer; 600m sq ft+ land bank.
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Infra triggers: ₹70 bn projects (airport, metro, HSR).
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Growth driver: Eastern Mumbai land bank monetisation.
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GMR Airports
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Traffic CAGR: 10% FY25-28.
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EBITDA CAGR: 26%.
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Valuation: SOTP-based TP ₹108.
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📡 IT & Telecom
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Coforge
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EPS CAGR: 23% FY26-28.
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Valuation: 37x PE, 1.6x PEG.
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TP: ₹2,030.
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Bharti Airtel
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Mobile revenue CAGR: 17%, EBITDA CAGR: 19% FY25-28.
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Free Cash Flow CAGR: 22%.
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ROCE to rise 75% by FY28.
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TP: ₹2,500, 12x EV/EBITDA.
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✅ Financial Takeaway:
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CAGR range: 10% (Jindal Stainless) → 50% (Siemens Energy).
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Valuation Upside: 12% (HDFC Bank) → 48% (Jubilant Foodworks).
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Sectors Leading: BFSI, Autos, Infra, Energy, Pharma.
Great ✅ Let’s build a clear financial comparison table for Jefferies’ 25 stock picks — with Sector, CAGR (EPS/EBITDA), Target Price, and Upside % wherever available.
📊 Jefferies’ 25 Bottom-Up Stock Picks – Financial Snapshot
| Stock | Sector | CAGR FY25-28E | Target Price (₹) | Upside % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliance Industries | Energy/FMCG/New Energy | EBITDA CAGR 11% | 1,670 | 21% |
| HDFC Bank | Banking | NIM -30bps FY26; profit recovery after | 1,200 | 12–15% |
| ICICI Bank | Banking | Stable growth, margins dip 25bps FY26 | 1,760 | ~20% |
| Max Financial Services | Insurance | APE CAGR 15%, VNB CAGR 17% | 1,900 | 20–25% |
| Bajaj Finance | NBFC | AUM CAGR 23–24%, EPS >20% | 1,100 | ~15% |
| Cholamandalam Finance | NBFC | EPS CAGR 25%, ROE 19–20% | NA | NA |
| Mahindra & Mahindra | Auto/Tractors | EPS CAGR 19%, Volumes +12% | NA | NA |
| TVS Motors | Auto (2W/EV) | EPS CAGR 27% | NA | Premium |
| Jindal Stainless | Metals/Steel | EPS CAGR 20%, EBITDA CAGR 15% | 900 | NA |
| Siemens Energy India | Industrial/Power | EPS CAGR 50% | 4,000 | NA |
| Hindustan Aeronautics | Defence/Aero | Rev CAGR 8–10%, Strong order book | 6,220 | ~20% |
| JSW Energy | Power/Renewables | EPS CAGR 23% | 700 | NA |
| Adani Ports | Infra/Ports | EBITDA CAGR 19% | 1,815 | Attractive |
| UltraTech Cement | Cement | Profitability rebound from FY26 | 14,700 | NA |
| Jubilant Foodworks | Consumer/QSR | SSS double-digit growth | 1,000 | 48% |
| AWL Agri Business | FMCG/Staples | EPS to double in 5 yrs | NA | NA |
| Sun Pharma | Pharma | EPS CAGR high-teens | 2,070 | ~20% |
| Mankind Pharma | Pharma | Sales CAGR 20%, Chronic 40% of rev | 3,100 | NA |
| Lodha Developers | Real Estate | Strong infra triggers | NA | NA |
| Coforge | IT Services | EPS CAGR 23% | 2,030 | NA |
| Bharti Airtel | Telecom | FCF CAGR 22%, ROCE +75% | 2,500 | NA |
| Navin Fluorine | Specialty Chem | EPS CAGR 36% | 6,025 | 26% |
| Amber Enterprises | Consumer Durables | Sales CAGR 28%, PAT CAGR 48% | 9,450 | NA |
| InterGlobe Aviation | Aviation | Strong intl expansion | 6,925 | NA |
| GMR Airports | Airports/Infra | EBITDA CAGR 26% | 108 | NA |
🔎 Observations
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Top CAGR Leaders – Siemens Energy (50%), Amber Enterprises (48% PAT), Navin Fluorine (36%).
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Highest Upside – Jubilant Foodworks (48%), Reliance (21%), HAL (~20%), Navin Fluorine (26%).
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BFSI Picks – HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Bajaj Finance, Chola Finance, Max Financial.
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Infra & Energy Focus – Reliance, JSW Energy, Adani Ports, UltraTech Cement, Siemens Energy.
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Consumer Growth Stories – Jubilant, AWL, TVS, M&M, Bharti Airtel.
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