India’s Economy Set to Add ₹4 Trillion in FY26 – IMF Forecasts 6.6% Growth, 6 Points

Washington DC / New Delhi

📈 India’s FY26 GDP Growth Upgraded to 6.6% — IMF Predicts ₹3.9 Lakh Crore Boost, but FY27 Sees Slight Dip

1. 🔹 IMF’s Latest Growth Projections

1. FY26 GDP Forecast Raised

   • Revised from 6.4% → 6.6%

   • Potential ₹3.9 lakh crore+ addition to India’s GDP (based on current ₹270 lakh crore GDP base)

2. FY27 Outlook Trimmed

   • Revised from 6.4% → 6.2%

   • Reflects 20 basis point (bps) cut

3. Cumulative Impact of US Tariffs

   • Growth expected to be 0.2 percentage points lower vs pre-tariff scenario (Oct 2024 forecast)

2. 🔹 India Still Outperforming Major Global Economies

✅ India remains the fastest-growing major economy globally.

3. 🔹 Strong Domestic Momentum

• Q1 FY25 GDP Growth: 7.8% – highest in 5 quarters

• Growth driven by:

  • Manufacturing surge

  • Increased consumption

  • Government capital spending

4. 🔹 IMF’s Fiscal Assumptions Explained

1. Based on Govt. Announcements + IMF Adjustments

2. Key Differences in Accounting

   • Disinvestment proceeds

   • License auction revenues

   • Public sector lending

3. Off-Budget Food Subsidies Included from FY21

   • Aligned with India’s revised budget format

5. 🔻 Global Growth Slowdown Could Be a Headwind

• Emerging Economies: Slightly above 4%

• Risks: Trade wars, tighter financing, fiscal stress

6. 🔮 Key Risks & Opportunities for India

Downside Risks

• Escalation in US tariffs or global protectionism

• Tightening financial conditions

• Delayed policy clarity

Upside Potential

• Trade recovery

• Reforms push in FY26 Budget

• AI & Digital Productivity Gains

✅ Conclusion

Despite tariff pressures, India is set to gain nearly ₹4 lakh crore in FY26 output, driven by strong domestic momentum. While FY27 sees slight moderation, India remains the world’s growth engine.

⚠️ Disclaimer – The Profit India

This article is for informational and educational purposes only. It should not be considered financial or investment advice. Projections mentioned are based on IMF and World Bank reports, and actual economic performance may vary due to market and policy changes. Readers are advised to consult a financial expert before making economic or investment decisions.

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